PREDICTING THE FUTURE: THE ROAD AHEAD

PREDICTING THE FUTURE: THE ROAD AHEAD

Forecasting is the most difficult task but the irony is that a few people make most of the money by predicting the future (in the case of astrologers / numerologists) or by selling dreams into the future (the marketing guy who sells a flat / villa for secondary rental income or selling Systematic Investment Plans / financial products for financial freedom). However, let’s aim to jot down a few life defining changes this pandemic has brought about.

Please keep in mind that the below predictions are based on the habitual changes which we have discussed above since the beginning of the lock-down. As new habits can be a bit radical, it would be futile to underestimate its far-reaching consequences.

A. Let’s start with life after COVID 19 and the impacts in our lives and families:

• Loss of jobs, food inflation arising from scarcity and online themes (see below for further comments on online themes) would be the new normal along with social distancing;
• Start-ups and business entrepreneurs operating in non-essential sector will face grave recessionary impacts. Where these businesses are run on debt, they may feel immense pressure to pay their suppliers / employees as no fresh credit would be available from banks;
• Many sole proprietorship businesses would be forced to wind up, leaving their employees jobless and penniless;
• With no certainty of future cash flows, people would generally spend less or defer large expenses. All big-ticket items such as purchase of house/ expensive cars such as Mercedes Benz /Audi or Rolex watches or Birkin bag would be a ‘touch-me-not’;
• I wonder would consumers get paid, if they buy certain consumer discretionary items similar to what happened in the case of oil. While some of you may ridicule this, Chinese firms are more than happy to offer some (less needed) discretionary products for free if you can pay the shipping cost;
• Growing veggies in our backyard and posting it via Instagram would be the new style statement;
• We will witness the growth of Telemedicine apps more than ever. This would be touted as the next big recession proof businesses;
• Engineering / management students are wondering how effective their online education would be and if there is any merit in paying millions to get foreign degrees from Stanford / INSEAD;
• Coursera / Udemy / Khan academy and such online education apps would be more famous than ever. New students and people who have lost their jobs would flock to these websites to train / up skill;
• Next millionaires / billionaires will be YouTube / Tick Tok account holders;
• Film actors / actress would be wondering as to when can they ‘act’ again. They would be in fact thanking the monetization scheme of Instagram which would help them to earn while in lock-down. They might be wondering as to whether animation movies would take the centre stage in the coming years and the ways in which they can become integral parts of popular animation franchises;
• Cricket and baseball stars / personalities would be much relieved as there are no better sports than cricket and baseball which can be played with safe distancing;
• Medical students are wondering how to learn medicine with safe distancing and PPE. Dentists and dental students would also be pondering the same;
• Court system in India would be checking out innovative ways to work online;
• Packaged foods and QSR delivery may still function at reduced level solely for takeaways. The opening-up of this sector will feed several people such as cooks, Swiggy / Zomato delivery guy and the hotel owner;
• We will witness employed people based in metros / tier 1 cities flocking to small towns / villages. If ‘work from home’ would be the new normal, people who rent in cities would ‘unfollow’ dense cities to live in their home town / villages.
• Families falling within lower strata / daily wage earners may consider venturing into cattle rearing and may buy one or two cattle / goats. These families can earn by selling milk in the neighbourhood and more importantly the payback time is less for their investments;
• People will travel less and in case of urgent travel, least preference would be given to travel via public transportation. This will create demand for automobiles available in lower to mid segment price points;
• There will be a pent-up demand for insurance products (both health and life) to protect from unexpected COVID 19 expense / death;
• Home-schooling might emerge as the new mode of schooling. Alternatively, parents would be curious to know whether their kids’ school would start online teaching. Also, they might be busy reading reviews to find out who’s the best teacher offering online tuition;
• Online libraries / on-demand reading app may gain popularity among a minority section of the people who hate Netflix dramas;
• Similar to on-demand libraries / food delivery apps, there could be a wave of on-demand hair salon / hair stylist business with required safety protocols;
• Online gaming / dating websites will gain more popularity than ever with youngsters;
• With the possibility of recession, we will start looking at fixed interests offered by public sector banks than attractive rates offered by private / co-operative banks for greater safety. There is a contrarian view in light of what is happening across many countries in Europe that interest rates may nose-dive to negative rates in India o;
• Investment in gold would be the new norm as Systematic Investment Plans into equities may see a drop. Investment managers and relationship managers would advise fresh money and money from equity / equity-oriented products to be invested in gold via ETFs / gold funds or even Sovereign Gold Bonds issued by Government of India;
• The foreign returned worker will turn into cultivation in his own / leased agricultural land to the extent possible. The management level executives will try to compete in the local job market with their better foreign experience;
• We will see the rise of new technological development that would alert us when 6m safe distance is not kept. Apps in mobile phones or larger tools for the police force to monitor the population at large, would be rampant, once the lock-down is lifted.

Source  :- https://medium.com/mathews-p-mathew/covid-19-a-sneak-peek-into-the-future-through-the-rear-view-lens-de96c6dceb39